Lencho's gamble – A pie in the sky

Bati Ibrahim

In business or politics, the art of bargaining have one common prerequisite. Any party that gets into negotiations have got to have something to offer, something the other party wants or needs. That's basic and only after that, based on bargaining power/chip/, can negotiation tactics be employed.

Refusing to negotiate, asking too much of a price, making unrealistic demands...all could work based on your negotiation power, which in other words means how much the other party wants what you got.

Keeping this in mind lets recap the journey of the Oromo Democratic Front (ODF).

The founders of the ODF are veteran politicians like Lencho Leta who founded the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) in 1973 with an aim to struggle for the independence of the Oromo people. The organization and Lencho managed to be part of the transitional government of Ethiopia (1991-1995) after the current ruling coalition EPRDF toppled the military junta and set the country into a democratic path.

Unfortunately, the OLF and Lencho made a serious of grave mistakes, including crimes against humanity, and squandered a golden opportunity to make positive contributions to the Oromo people. The group left the coalition government and went to exile to serve the regime in Eritrea in its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia. The Ethiopian parliament and the Sub-continental body IGAD lately deemed the OLF a terrorist organization and it eventually disappeared into oblivion.

It is out of the demise of this self-worshiping group that Lencho moved on to start anew. He dropped the outdated cessation agenda of the OLF and pledged to work to achieve for a federal democratic Ethiopia. I don't know if he got amnesia but a federal democratic Ethiopia came into existence right after he went to exile two decades ago. I bet he remembers the drafting of a federal democratic constitution he participated in. Alas, in a typical fashion of Ethiopian opposition, he appears to deny the progress achieved as long as he wasn't able to share power.

ODF Came to Being in 2013 in the United States and made statements on its acceptance of the constitution and announced its intention to participate in peaceful political struggle in the country. The news was welcomed by many in the country even though many were not convinced of the relevance of the ODF in the political arena.

Surprise visit

Forward to the 20th of March 2015, two years after its inception, the ODF leader Lencho Leta made a surprise visit to suddenly return to Ethiopia. The sudden return was ill timed and absurd though. Let me explain.

The timing Lencho chose to return was when the Oromo People's Democratic Organization (OPDO), the ruling party governing Oromia, was celebrating its 25th birthday across the nation. Lencho was probably poking at the OPDO, stealing its thunder by making news of nonexistent “negotiations”.

The absurdity was in that Lencho was asking to negotiate after announcing his acceptance of the constitution. It is common knowledge that the Ethiopian government has only one precondition for working with political parties and that is their acceptance of the constitution. If the ODF accepted that there is nothing left to negotiate since he can form a party at home as per the law and register it with the relevant institution in Ethiopia. It’s that easy.

However, to ponder to bring a party formed according to U.S. law and expect negotiation or approval for it amounts to absurdity. It’s as if the ODF is a group in equal position with an elected government. That action was telling that the ODF and Lencho were afflicted with the same disease that buried the OLF, self-worshiping.

To his dismay, the OPDO, the ruling party of Oromia busted his bubble by ignoring him and move on with its celebrations. The visit, intended to be a triumphant return to home has ended in an embarrassing return back to the U.S. The entire saga probably set off the ODF into an attempt to find some relevance and attract the attention of the government of Ethiopia.

Oromia in turmoil - an opportunity

Oromia, for the last three months, was rocked by spontaneous legitimate protests which later degenerated into violent riots. The turmoil was taken as an opportunity for Lencho to become relevant again hence he ventured to risky waters to achieve that.

In an age old fashion of outdated politicians that aspire to grab the attention of the public, Lencho started giving a series of empty-barrel interviews demanding policies to “his people” even-though those exact things have been achieved by the people since the millennium. He also started soliciting/receiving financial assistance from the Egyptian security apparatus along with other diaspora Oromo politicians.

In one recent interview, Lencho stated he won't negotiate with the government of Ethiopia that he accused of mistreating the people. It was confusing to hear his refusal to negotiate for someone who remembers he was the one who got ignored in his plea for attention months ago. What changed to elevate him to a higher ground? What did he achieve to hold such an attitude?

The basics of bargaining dictate one to have valuable cards at hand to be taken seriously for negotiation. It’s a pipe dream to expect being considered as worthy when what you got is long faded charisma and outdated platform. I guess Lencho haven't yet realized what he got or the lack thereof. Or maybe it is a manifestation of that old OLF’s narcissistic self-worshiping, the predilection to consider oneself as indispensable and ever-relevant. He should heed the advice to get down to earth.

The pathetic decision of the ODF to make an alliance with a banned unitarist ultra-right group, Ginbot 7, only emphasized the party’s lack of anchor in federal principles. Its choice of a politically unviable group as an ally might also show the deficit in judgment is still the hallmark of the ODF founders.