Breaking down suspicion by standing on the lime light

Bereket Gebru

We hear time and again from scholars in the field that the Nile has been a source of “deep-rooted suspicion” in political relations between Egypt and Ethiopia throughout history. This suspicion emanates from perceived potential threats that either one can pose harm to the other to ensure control of the water or to reinforce political motives. Such suspicion reached considerable heights in the first few years of the launching of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  

The news of a grand dam over the Blue Nile was taken as a threat to Egyptian water rights by Egyptians. That prompted bold threats by Egyptian officials that they would explore every rout that could lead to the halting of the dam’s construction. Pundits talked up the high probability of a water war between the two countries especially after a televised Egyptian cabinet meeting under Mohammed Mursi openly discussed thwarting Ethiopia’s efforts through options that included the use of mercenaries, arming Ethiopian armed opposition and inciting civil unrest in the country.

The positive developments since the ascendance of Abdul Fattah El-Sisi have, however, helped the two countries forge a relationship based on dialogue. The increased diplomatic exchanges between the two countries under the present Egyptian administration and the signing of the declaration of principles are also good instances of the effort to do away with suspicion and focus on engagement with one another recently. The rhetoric coming out of the current Egyptian administration, through its officials, has also been largely of cooperation and dialogue between the parties.

In the latest of efforts to promote mutual understanding, an unofficial Egyptian delegation visited the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The delegation received warm reception by Ethiopians at the dam led by the project manager of the GERD, Semegnew Bekele.

Semegnew Bekele showed the delegation that the Blue Nile is flowing on its natural course squashing inaccurate reports in Egypt surrounding the course of the river. He further pointed out that Ethiopia is not infringing on the usual flow of the river. He also denied Egyptian media reports that Ethiopia has already started filling the reservoir starting the current Ethiopian winter. That can actually be easily backed up as the delegation was visiting the dam and could check if that was true. He also stated that holding more water than the dam’s capacity would flood the dam posing a threat to it. He further went on to say that holding more water than capacity does not have any additional economic advantages; therefore, it is not rationale to think that Ethiopia would engage in such an undertaking.

Another point he made was that Egyptians don’t have to feel threatened by the construction of the dam as the river is still flowing through its natural course and the dam fulfills the standards required. He also remarked that Ethiopia has implemented the recommendations of the international panel of experts as it has adhered to technical procedures indicated in their study.

In yet another dimension of his speech, Semegnew noted that the turbines to be installed would not consume water or change the direction of flow of the river away from the course. He added that the design of the dam does not promote water consumption.

Semegnew also pointed out that the dam could provide Egypt with clean and cheap electricity, if the two countries managed to erect an electric line. He also called upon media professionals from Egypt, Sudan and South Sudan who would take part in the Stockholm International Water Institute’s meeting to deal with the issue carefully and objectively, sending his plea for them to report on the GERD accurately.     

Semegnew Bekele piled up on Ethiopia’s role as the hub of electric power distribution in the horn of Africa by citing Kenya, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia and Eritrea as countries that are set to benefit from Ethiopia’s efforts in the production of power. He explained that these countries would be connected with a 500 volt line with Ethiopia.

He informed the delegation that eleven thousand workers, three hundred engineers and other professionals are working in shifts around the clock without any interruptions in construction. He also briefed the delegates that sixteen turbines with high electric generating capacity will be fitted to make the dam the biggest in Africa and the eighth in the world. In his message to the people of Ethiopia, Semegnew noted that the purpose of the GERD is to fight only poverty. He stated that the Ethiopian government has the responsibility of improving the lives of the Ethiopian people and that the dam has indirect benefits to both Egypt and the Sudan. He finally called for cooperation to make the best out this mutually beneficial undertaking.   

The visit by the Egyptian delegation showcases the increased will for dialogue between the two countries. It has helped the Ethiopian side to show the Egyptians of its side of the story while the latter have been provided with the chance to check the Ethiopian side of the story first hand and convey their concerns.

Although such developments help the need for positive engagement between the two countries, there is actually a long way before they manage to root out the deep lying suspicion. This fact has been proven around the visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Ethiopia.

Some Egyptians felt like the construction of the dam would become an issue for Israeli and Ethiopian officials. On the other hand, the immediate travel by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry to Tel Aviv was considered by some Ethiopian as having motives related with the GERD. Regardless of whether the suspicions on both sides were right or wrong, the case clearly shows the deep laying suspicion between the two sides.

With recent reports claiming that Egypt has requested its membership to the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) be reinstated, there has clearly been an increased tendency to engage with upper riparian countries under the current Egyptian administration. After freezing its participation in the Nile Basin Initiative since 2010 when Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania signed a new treaty on equitable sharing of Nile waters, recent reports indicate a positive move on the part of Egypt in submitting a request during the 24th meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Nile Basin Initiative held in Uganda.

The actions by the two states need to push their understanding and mutual benefits further to erode the suspicion that has lurked under their relations. After all, it is their cooperation that spells better days for their people.