Analyzing the reasons for the current upheaval

Bereket Gebru

After a decade of peace since the unrest following the 2005 elections, Ethiopia is nowadays marred by riots in numerous cities. The disregard for the rule of law in some parts of the country has recently caught additional places jeopardizing the economic, social and political stability that has been the foundation of the country’s double digit growth in the last decade and half.

The executive committee of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) evaluated the major undertakings of the last fifteen years with a thorough deliberation on recent developments in the country. Accordingly, the ruling party clearly indicated that there are two major realities in the country contemporarily: exciting and threatening prospects.

1. The exciting realities were explained as the economic, social, political and diplomatic achievements registered over the last fifteen years. The country has notably recorded a double digit growth in the last fifteen years propelling to stand among the fastest growing economies in the world. The development that ensued has liberated half of the population off the chronic poverty that shackled its limbs. The social realities in the countries have, therefore, changed for the better within the specified time. The political and diplomatic realities of the country have also benefitted greatly from the rapidly improving economic and social conditions.

Just a closer look at the humongous changes in the agricultural sector would clarify the level of progress the country has seen recently. For instance, the total agricultural harvest in the country stood at 73 million quintals annually in the mid 1990s. However, the autumn harvest alone this year has reached 280 million quintals. During the fifteen years of EPRDF’s renaissance, the harvest by subsistence farmers increased fourfold. The national food supply has grown to reach three quintals per person annually.

The committee also considered that most of the financial capacity built over the years came from domestic sources. It also analyzed that at an equivalent rate of national food supply per person (290 kg/yr), the Chinese economic growth gained the stability to increase sustainably for decades to come. Accordingly, the status of economic growth in Ethiopia is analyzed to be equivalent to that of the Chinese economic growth in the 1980s.

The huge labor force that used to be engaged in agriculture is currently being released into other sectors indicating the transformation from largely agriculture dependent economy to a more industrial one. Although the inability to provide enough employment opportunities to this group might pose some danger to the economic and political stability of the country, a conscious effort to harness the resource could end up setting the economic mode into a higher gear.

The infrastructural development in urban centers has also upgraded the standing of Ethiopian cities. The employment opportunities created through micro and small enterprises and the industrial sector have also helped life in urban centers.

Rapid economic growth is usually associated with a major challenge in wealth distribution as people have varying access to resources. The Ethiopian development has, however, proved to be of largely inclusive as it took half of the population off absolute poverty. The wealth distribution in the country is also generally believed to be fair with a gini coefficient of 0.3.

In terms of social development, the country has also enjoyed a bask in the sun. Fifteen years ago, not more than 4% of the population accessed education. That number has now jumped to more than 30% as nearly one-third of the entire population of the country is educated. Despite the lingering issue of quality in the education sector, the efforts to expand access have matched that of developed countries as the country has achieved a nearly 100% enrolment rate. With 30 million people in schools in Ethiopia today, the country is educating the equivalent of students in 24 countries in Africa that have a population size of less than 4 million people.

The health conditions in the country have also improved immensely in the past fifteen years as the life expectance in the country reached 64 years in 2014 from 61 years in 2011 and a shocking 45 years in 1991.

The state of infrastructure has also noticeably improved as the government of Ethiopia invested a lot in this sector. From the construction of rural to urban roads, railways, dams, renewable energy harnessing sites, irrigation, clean water supply and others, Ethiopia has laid the foundation for future developmental endeavors with its investment in infrastructure.

Politically, the country is trying to advance the state of democracy through regular elections that have seen a rising number of people participate in them. It is also building democratic institutions such as the electoral board, the human rights commission, the ombudsman and others. The governmental policy of engagement has also allowed people to participate in social, economic and political endeavors strengthening the state of governance in the country.

Although there have been major limitations as well, the successes achieved have built the basis for development in the future. Along with social participation, the major reasons behind the success of the last fifteen years are pointed as mature policies of the government and the governmental stand to serve as a tool for change.

2. The threatening prospects refer to the conditions that pose danger to the exciting realities in the country. The executive committee identified two major categories of threatening realities.

The first group of threats is made up of changes in the past couple of decades. In the last couple of decades, the population size has nearly doubled posing social service provision by the government a major challenge. During this time, the society has become one with mature opinion and a demanding society has been created. Although that is a privilege for a country, it calls for improved leadership once again challenging the current state of leadership. The expansion of education has led to the rise of modern demands by a large enough size of people that can meet critical mass. The related change of attitude to technology even in rural areas (fertilizers, improved seeds, etc) has also risen up as a challenge. The last fifteen years have also seen the number of youth in small towns and urban centers soar considerably, bringing with it the challenge of creating enough jobs for them. Failure to create the required number of jobs has resulted in their outflow to urban centers pilling on the problems in such areas.

The other group of threats is made up of the lack of accountability of the leadership. Despite the fair wealth distribution in the country, things have started to turn around for the worst. The sense of social service in the party has faded somewhat with the leadership infamously using their public office for personal gain. Siphoning off allocated budget and insincere measures to stop that kind of activity has been witnessed. Political attitudes that correspond with such behavior have also been on the rise. Covering up injustice and embezzlement with nationality has increasing become visible. Religion is also increasingly being used as a cover.

As has been evident recently, the Ethiopian public is openly expressing its anger and disappointment towards such developments. With social unrest and the mob mentality that ensues, harsh and illegal actions have become too apparent. A wrong course in the treatment of the unrest as well as in response to the lack of accountability by the leadership could lead to the deprivation of the exciting realities discussed above. The ruling party should, therefore, be careful in carving out the right course to take towards redeeming itself and rescuing the lives of innocent Ethiopians trapped in the situation.

Towards that end, the executive committee of the EPRDF has decided to launch a period of deep renaissance to be kicked off with a wide and deep evaluation. The solution packages put forward include: staffing political office through merit and not mere party membership, raising ethical standard, implementing transparency, accountability and participatory measures.