The EGRD and Egyptian worries

Gemechu Tussa

April 2011 was a significant month to the people of Ethiopia, the month when the Ethiopian government   announced its plan to build one of the largest Dam in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which will create a reservoir that is nearly twice as large as Lake Tana with 5 billion USD and It projected to generate 6,000MW.

It was so astonishing that the cost estimate equals the country’s entire annual budget that is fully financed by the government and people of Ethiopia. This politically and economically influential project was the first in its kind to break the notion of the country’s inability to build such huge projects on the river Nile on its own capacity. Egypt has long held the majority rights to use the waters of the Nile whereas Ethiopia, the source of 85 pre cent of the Nile waters left aside with almost none rights to utilize it.

Following the announcement of the project by the Ethiopian government two extreme ideas were reflected. On one hand, the Ethiopian people who had been suffering of fulfilling their daily bread for decades while their country is endowed with ample natural resources developed hope and express their commitment to fully own the project and work industriously in collaboration with the government for its realization.

On the other hand, Egypt expressed its stand as if Ethiopia has no right to utilize the water it owns to its development quoting the agreements that gave Egypt the majority share of using the Nile Waters. That treaty was held between Egypt and Sudan under the auspice of the British during the colonial era.

Analysts argue that the 1959 agreement between the two lower riparian countries, Sudan and Egypt, excluding Ethiopia, which was the main source of the river, and other upstream countries was has created enmity among the people in the region.

When Egypt’s question in connection of that treaty was rejected by the Ethiopian government and the international community for a very vivid justification, which underlined Ethiopia the contributor of 85 of the water was never part of the agreement.  That treaty was made between the two downstream countries and their colonial ally ignoring all the countries where the Nile Waters originate.

In fact, in those old days, Egyptian officials had been using methods to maintain their absolute control of the Nile Waters. Firstly, they used their entire power in convincing donor countries and international nongovernmental organization to restrain from supporting any project on the Nile River. As a result, the international funders had been showing no interest in supporting projects on the Nile Waters. Secondly, they propagate as if they had a strong army that could destroy any project on the Nile River. Thirdly, they had been attempting to destabilize the country so that it couldn’t consolidate its efforts towards development through supporting  anti Ethiopian groups like OLF and Ginbot 7.

Besides, they had a strong belief that Ethiopia had no capacity to build any project with its own finance. In fact, the activities of Egypt coupled with the destabilized situation of in country well as its lack of financial capacity never gave space the people of Ethiopian to think about development. But now the country’s socio-economic and political scenario has absolutely altered. Ethiopia has become one of the fastest emerging economies in the region following the overthrow of the military junta and the coming of Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front in to power in 1991.

This development necessitates the development of electric power that could shoulder the fast growing economy, the boosting investment and the expanding social services.  Besides, the power consumption raised as the living standard of the people has improved.  All these persuaded the country to develop its power every time, at least 25 per cent a year.

The country has identified poverty as its arch foe. It has been working accordingly to ensure sustainable economic development. In this regard, the country has been attempting to utilize one of its resources, the Nile River, in collaboration with other basin countries.

Ethiopia’s fast economic growth and its boosting investment need huge electricity. Developing its power is a matter of living under poverty or sustaining the fast economy. In other words, one of the most fundamental measures that the country has to take to reduce poverty   and ensure fast and sustainable economic growth is developing its   energy. 

Ethiopia was never benefited in those old days. It is now working hard to ensure equitable water utility among countries in the Nile Basin.  That is why the country has been devoting in bringing all Nile Basin countries together including Sudan and Egypt for common prosperity. 

The two downstream countries had doubt at the beginning. However, Sudan comprehended it soon and began to cooperate with Ethiopia. Now, Egypt also seems to cooperate after a long time diplomatic discussions. 

Ethiopia doesn’t want to prosper risking others. It vividly explained that the hydropower dams built in the country could help the region as a whole. 

The Ethiopian economy has well grown in the past twenty five years. As a result, it began constructing different huge projects including the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam on its own finance. Besides, the country has been working industriously to realize regional economic integration. 

Its effort in establishing the Nile Basin Initiative is part and parcel of this effort. The Ethiopian government and people believe that there shouldn’t be any project in any country that could inflict harm on the others. The Nile is so huge that all countries along the basin could be benefited if there is faire and equitable water utilization.

 The efforts to bring all Nile Basin countries for common benefit and cooperation deserved an easy task. Ethiopia has been doing for it almost throughout the past two decades. Although it was gloomy at the very beginning, when Mursi was in power, thing have seemed altered  with the political changes in Egypt and the coming of a new government into power has gave attention to what Ethiopia has been attempting to create a diplomatic relations and a win-win approach in utilizing the Nile Waters.

As a result, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan signed a "Declaration of Principles" on the 23rd of May 2015 that set out the rights and obligations of each of the three countries related to the construction of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam. From the very beginning, Ethiopia made its stand so vivid that the project inflicts no harm on the downstream countries rather it will help economic integration among the countries in the region.

That was why Ethiopia proposed and formulated an international Panel of Experts, with members from Egypt and Sudan, to review the EGRD’s social and environmental impacts on downstream nations. The panel submitted its report to the governments in June 2013. All its conclusions were aliened with what Ethiopia had been explaining since the launch of the Dam.

The panel found no gaps in the standard of the dam which was one of the questions Egypt raised before the investigation. The report concluded that EGRD meets its international standards. Besides, it ascertained that the EGRD will never inflict any significant harm on the downstream countries: Sudan and Egypt. This was another point Egypt raised as a threat to it.

There is still the same stand in Ethiopia. It argued the dam will benefit downstream neighbors and will have no ill effects on their water supply. Rather the dam will give the both the upstream and downstream countries a greater opportunity of economic integration.

Besides, hydropower politics analysts argued that the Dam could also reduce the evaporation as it is found deep down a gored contributing to reserve the water that could be out of use due to that evaporation. Moreover, the two downstream countries will get constant water throughout the year after the completion of the Dam which could fill the gap that these countries face during dry months.

On one hand, realizing the benefit of the EGRD to downstream countries and on the other hand recognizant of that the deep rooted longstanding relations between the two countries, the Sudan, from the very beginning, has allied with Ethiopia in having such a huge hydropower dam.

Egypt has also come to good terms recently that the Egyptian government vividly announced that Egyptians don’t want to oppose the development in Ethiopia. They express that Ethiopia could use its water to develop its economy in a fair way. That was what the Ethiopian government has been striving for since the launch of the EGRD in April 2011.

At the beginning, Egypt raised three worries. Fist, if the dam failed to meet an international standard, it may be harmful to the downstream countries as it cause flood if damaged. Second, the construction of this dam could the amount of water flowing to downstream countries significantly. And finally, Ethiopia could become economical strong to manage other projects on the Nile if it build such a huge project by its own finance and human capacity.

However, the first two were disapproved by the International Panel of Experts and the third worry is vividly expressed by the people and government of Ethiopia that they don’t have any intention to have a project that could inflict any harm on the downstream countries. It is appropriate for Egypt to come to diplomatic discussion and work together with other Basin Countries on a win-win approach.