The Quitters Never Win

Amen Teferi

Typically, Ethiopia has two rainy seasons. The heavy summer (meher) rains are crucial and 90 percent of the country’s farmland is rain-fed. Before last year, when in the 18 months lead up to the onset of the 2015 drought, hot and dry weather patterns arising from the El Niño weather effect had left vast areas of the country without rain. Hence, farm production in the affected regions dropped as much as 90 percent. That was the harshest drought and Ethiopia had faced and the worst emergency in 50 years. Then, 18 million people—nearly a fifth of the country’s population, were needing food aid. Again this year another drought has crippled the country’s agricultural lowlands and pastoral areas.

Last time, when famine of biblical scope had loomed, Ethiopia were able to respond effectively by nationally monitoring, tracking, and distributing supplies that fend-off the crisis without any loss of human life –practically none. In fact, distributing supplies among such a vast population, down to such local levels was itself vast achievement.

Ethiopia has dealt with multiple droughts since 1984, including severe ones in 2000 and 2011. It has a preventive initiative such as the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) to monitor potential crisis. The PSNP is one of the major preventive initiatives designed to coordinate the monthly distribution of food rations to people chronically at risk. In return, recipients provide labor to build roads, schools, health posts, food storage warehouses, and water reservoirs. The PSNP also includes regular assessments of damage to farms and of the scope and urgency of nutritional needs, data that helps warn of potential crises.

Therefore when the first signs of trouble became visible in 2015, the PSNP had immediately responded using the network of roads, warehouses, and local distribution points. That mechanism had made possible the provision of rapid response to the worst-hit regions or localities using established infrastructures that needs to be scaled up for a rapid response in time of crisis.

In the harshest crisis we saw in 2015 Ethiopia didn’t have that much breathing room. And some in the international aid community or agencies were grumbling that the disaster hadn’t been anticipated sooner, nor more swiftly declared a crisis. They have even tended to accuse “that the government was reluctant to admit they were back facing problems of hunger and malnourished children.”

While the international aid partners opted to direct their fingers at the government and began to accuse the government, something unprecedented had happened. Ethiopian government started to scramble to fill the funding and supply void and became the lead investor in rescue mission of its own people.

For more than a decade there has been strong economic growth. Thus, the government was able to divert huge flows of domestic revenue into the drought response—almost $800 million across 18 months. Then, the country’s aid partners have contributed another $700 million.

The result has been acclaimed as perhaps the largest drought-relief effort, with the fewest human fatalities relative to the scale of the crisis that the world has ever seen. This was a response that is identified to serve other African countries as a blueprint in building resilience against the climate pressures ahead.

Ethiopia had shown her ability to provide aid to chronically food-insecure Ethiopians who are totally accounted to be more than 18 million people—nearly a fifth of the country’s population. The logistics of rapidly disseminating so much aid requires that you have enough dollars in the bank, buying food and bringing it through shipping to the ports, into warehouses, and into people’s homes. This is a daunting task that can’t happen overnight and it might take three months or more.

When the first signs of trouble became visible, the PSNP was already providing regular rations to 8 million people and the drought had brought another 10.2 million people who need food provision. And Ethiopia had successfully responded to such huge crisis and it is doing the same now.

Astonished by the system of response to 2015 drought, a field coordinator at FAO, Alemu Manni, had said: “the mechanics of the system are beautiful. To be able to nationally monitor, track, and distribute supplies among such a vast population, down to such local levels—it’s a vast achievement.”

There is another line to this story. Ethiopia’s gross domestic product was among the fastest-growing in Africa, with its textile and agricultural sectors growing alongside its infrastructure. Besides, agricultural productivity has more than tripled in the past 30 years. In short, industries, agriculture, service sectors, and foreign direct investment had helped the government generate the funds for its share of the emergency response budget.

Ethiopia has been channeling much of the nation’s domestic revenue into development projects—from the construction of major dams for hydroelectricity to large-scale industrial farms and modern textile refineries—and were able to divert some of the development funds to the relief effort, while also tapping fresh funds directly from domestic revenues.

The leaders had acted decisively to secure funds and mobilize relief. The government was very responsive at that time the 2015 environmental crisis and it continue to do so now. Apart the immediate work of relief, Ethiopia is also engaged in long term initiatives, in hopes of forestalling the next crisis. While it is trying to cope-up with the relief responses, it is working all the necessary things to build a drought resistance shape; soil and water conservation, fodder programs, irrigation and well development, improving productivity of range land for cattle, seed supply.

Robinson, the UN climate change envoy, told to Bloomberg: “We can reasonably expect that somewhere between three and seven years from now, this region will experience the effects of a more severe El Niño aggravated by climate change.” The next drought that will hit Ethiopia will be, in fact, more severe than the last one. This could eclipse the response capacity of any aid-relief effort—no matter how generously funded and well-oiled. Hence, long-term initiatives that would built-in resilience are the best defense. As it is doing her best to aptly respond to the crisis it now faces, Ethiopia is working to make aid provision an obsolete mission. That is its goal. We are steadfastly fighting the climate change with a belief that “a quitter never wins, and a winner never quit.” We never quit!