Ethiopia Can Meet the Case

Amen Teferi

Egypt has very recently talked to all of Ethiopia’s neighbors individually. It has invited President Salva Kiir of South Sudan, Omar Guelleh of Djibouti, Isayas Afeworki of Eritrea and the Sudanese foreign Minister to Cairo and president Al-Sisi had flown to Uganda to confer with president Musevini.

No doubt, this development can affect the political-strategic nuance of the region. To that extent, the rising insecurity and instability in the Horn of Africa would really trigger serious concern for those who would be directly affected by the eventuality of the strained political and diplomatic ramification observed in the bilateral and multilateral relation of countries in the Horn and in the middle-east.

As we chart the way ahead, the domestic political ripple and the new development in the Horn of Africa would be a big test for Ethiopia. The desolate leadership in Asmara is isolated from the international community and thus eager to clinch partnership with anyone that shows it a smiling face and offers some help in destabilizing Ethiopia.

We know that Eritrea is hosting a UAE naval facility and it has allowed its air space to be used in the war on Yemen. It has even sent its troops to Yemen allying with a block that it had been previously disdaining. By the decision to collaborate with the wealthy GCC in their war on Yemen, Eritrea has unequivocally side with a pro American unipolar coalition in order to receive money and fuel and to have the possibility of having relief from the sanction made UNSC. Now being “under the protective wing of the GCC,” some observers say, Asmara might feel encouraged to provoke Ethiopia and this situation holds out the threat of spilling over into armed violence in the future. Therefore, what has been transpiring lately in each of the Horn of Africa states must be evaluated through the tenets of our foreign policy.

In my view, the Horn of Africa has remained calm in the last two decades mainly because Ethiopia has pursued a foreign policy that helped the region as a whole to transform. However, according Andrew korybko this situation seems to be changing. In this regard, korybko said the following:

The northeastern reaches of the African continent have been maligned in the Western imagination as a place of dire suffering, war, and famine, but somewhat surprisingly, the region had remained relatively stable over the past decade, barring of course a few exceptions. All of that now seems ready to be reversed, however, with destabilizing events returning as the regional norm. Whereas the previous ten years of moderate stability and growth can be attributed to China’s positive involvement in the Horn, the forthcoming years of uncertainty are directly linked to the US and Saudi Arabia’s efforts to dislodge China from the region and bring it closer to the unipolar fold. As a result, it can objectively be proclaimed that the New Cold War between the unipolar and multipolar blocs has officially penetrated this part of Africa.

 (THE DESTABILIZATIONS IN DJIBOUTI AND ETHIOPIA ARE BEING EXPLOITED AGAINST CHINA, 2016)

Touching upon the grim prospect that follows from the latest development, Andrew korybko has also noted that “it looks probable that Ethiopia could become a continental leader if it continues along its state-driven development trajectory.” However, if anything goes wrong in the region Ethiopia would be the first to suffer the consequences. However, we can be reassured when we try to compose ourselves and see things critically based on tents of our foreign policy.

The fundamental paradigm shift one can easily pointed out from the current foreign policy of Ethiopia is its proclivity towards the internal political harmony as a means to ensure its peace and national security rather than fumbling about to deal with isolated deeds of its perceived or real enemies who might conspire against it. In my view this is an astute policy that would possibly fend off any external threats Ethiopia may face in the volatile region of the Horn of Africa. The EFDR foreign policy would clearly indicates that Ethiopia has relieved itself from the pestering effects of a siege mentality that had deposed the previous regimes to be paranoid based on a wrong assessment or belief that other hostile countries are conspiring against the country.

Freeing itself from imagined or real threats that incarcerate by fear of attack by external hostile forces, Ethiopia has adopted a new foreign policy that adopts an inward looking perspective and that tries to move with the time. And take my word for it and be rest assured that countries that are hovering around the Horn of Africa would not pose any real danger to our national security if we manage to cope with our internal political discord.    

According to some local and external observers, Ethiopia seems to be doing nothing being oblivious of the endangering maneuver of the power politics of the Gulf States that would possibly put Ethiopia’s national security at risk. If Ethiopia continues to remain idle as such in the face of the ongoing stern political and military ramifications without taking the necessary precautionary measures that counterbalance the mug’s game that involve these hostile Gulf Countries on one hand and Iran on the other, it will suffer the consequences.

But according to our foreign policy, there is no more important issue to Ethiopia’s domestic stability than the arrangement of its internal affairs. If it can reduce its internal anti-systemic threats that regularly conspire against our federal democratic establishment by ensuring and consolidating the democratic governance, no single terrorist group or conspiracy of “rogue state” would be strong enough to destabilize Ethiopia. This is my take.

Therefore, in assessing the state of Ethiopia’s strategic stability one must focus on the internal political situation. Anti-systemic groups who may threaten the stability of our federal democratic system solely feed on the dissatisfaction of the public that arise from lack of good governance and anti-democratic proclivity of government officials. 

While I believe that it is sensible to think in terms of the new scenario -owing to the siege mentality that Eritrea has adopted and accordingly acted over the past two decades- I would strongly believe the ball is in our hand. The most important factor that determines the outcome of any possible war of aggression that Eritrea may launch against Ethiopia is its internal political stability. 

The utmost hate the regime in Asmara harbors on Ethiopia might once again lead the leadership to miscalculate and may launch an open aggression. Nonetheless, if Eritrea decides to launch an aggression for the second time, Ethiopia will respond, as the late PM Meles has once said, in a manner that would make sure that Eritrea won’t have a third chance. If Eritrea decides on its own to go to war with Ethiopia or is emboldened to do so by the new allies, it will likely bring itself into the fray that would speed up its demise. If Ethiopia does all its “homework,” then it will meet any case and would surly fend off any threats.  

In a nut shell, the recent Saudi moves in Africa shows its interest to take a leadership role in African-Arab joint actions and also its desire to counter some of the progress Iran has made in recent years in the Horn of Africa. Given its tensions with Lebanon and Egypt, Saudi Arabia simply wants to diversify its allies in the Horn and wanted to achieve food security by expanding its agricultural projects in countries with abundant water and land resources –be it in the Nile Basin region or elsewhere. 

“Cairo continues to commit to a quiet diplomacy and contents itself with messages stressing the importance of the Egyptian role in many areas of Africa. Yet for many observers of the African-Arab scene, the lack of unified Arab vision toward Africa will turn the African continent into a field for Middle Eastern conflict — whether among Arab countries, or between Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia on one hand and Iran and Turkey on the other.